News-Antique.com - Jun 03,2011 - There can be no doubt that the global art market is currently experiencing a period of increased confidence and positive sentiment that is being defined and driven by an influx of wealthy Chinese buyers who are not only having a significant influence on the western art market, but are also propelling the Chinese art market to new heights at an alarmingly rapid rate. But, then you probably already new this unless you have been living on another planet for the last twelve months. Because any competent journalist could combine the results of recent art auctions with the rise of the Chinese art market to the top of the global art market charts and come to the conclusion that there is a Chinese art market boom, there have been plenty of reports along such lines.
The problem as I see it is that a majority of mainstream journalists report what they see and take what they see at face value. This means that a lot of what is written about the art market is pure reportage of current events that does not take into account past events or what is happening “behind the scenes”. As such, many of the conclusions that are reached regarding the progress of the art market are seriously flawed, which is why I write this blog and why lots of journalists come to me for my opinion before reporting on art market events. Please note that I am not suggesting that journalists are not doing their job properly, or are somehow at fault, because their job is to report on current events – and that is what they are doing. Since a majority of journalists are not art market experts one cannot expect them to have the sort of specialist knowledge or experience that is required to make accurate predictions about the art market.
One of the biggest mistake most people make when it comes to analysing the art market is failing to recognise and acknowledge the difference between a short term bubble and a sustainable long-term trend. To be able to distinguish between the two is no easy task and requires an in depth knowledge of the history of the art market and the mechanics of the art market as well as a good understanding of what outside factors influence the art market. However, with adequate knowledge and research it is possible to make accurate predictions as I have proven in the past. When it comes to the Chinese art market there are many factors that indicate a short term art market bubble as opposed to a long-term sustainable trend. In a previous post titled ‘Is the Chinese Art Market Doomed?’ I looked at some of the reasons I believe that the Chinese art market boom is not sustainable. With this series of posts I would like to continue this topic and offer some more insights into the current progression of the art market with a focus on China.